Hollywood’s Risk Aversion Meets a Creator-Led Countertrend

An analysis attributed an observation to Derek Thompson: Hollywood and the broader world may feel stagnant because institutions have become better at pricing risk. That logic favors familiar franchises and sequels over new shows and ideas, with Spider-Man and Lord of the Rings cited as examples.

The analysis also acknowledged the commercial strength of franchise entertainment: the latest Spider-Man was cited as having made $1 billion, despite widespread Marvel fatigue.

Nathan Fielder was presented as a counterexample—a creator whose work began locally and developed novel forms while retaining commercial appeal. Lower production and distribution costs were described as giving talented creators more opportunities, leaving uncertainty over whether the current media environment is stagnant or unusually favorable for new work.