Repeated exposure sharpens intuition for evaluating startups

Startup-evaluation intuition is described as developing over roughly a decade or more of watching companies move through repeated cycles: launching, becoming hot and attracting capital, while sometimes showing signs that something is not right despite strong momentum. Marketing and communications can make a company’s story seem more convincing than its underlying dynamics.

The approach combines pattern matching with direct diligence: staying close to what is happening, asking around and examining details thoroughly. Years spent getting to know highly capable, high-integrity founders—including Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman—are described as helping distinguish genuine ability from someone merely pretending. The precise source of this intuition remains unclear, but repeated predictions about themes later becoming widely discussed have reinforced the judgment.