Talk of a SpaceX–Tesla merger remains speculative

The hosts discussed speculation about a possible SpaceX–Tesla merger. They said Elon Musk had hinted at a combination while saying shareholders on both sides would decide and that he considered it the right move. One host argued that a merger could make it easier to balance investor demand for the two companies’ shares and imagined a combined company reaching a $10 trillion valuation. This was commentary, not an announced deal.

The host relayed views from Brett at ARK: robotaxis are a bigger opportunity than Starlink; orbital computing is much bigger than robotaxis; and Optimus needs more time to mature than orbital computing. In the host’s model, a merger at the current share-price ratio would leave Tesla shareholders 1.6 times better off in 2031 and SpaceX shareholders 2 times better off than without a merger. Over a longer period, the estimates were 5 times for Tesla shareholders and 1.3 times for SpaceX shareholders. The host said the fair premium depends heavily on the time horizon: Tesla shareholders should seek a premium over a shorter horizon, while SpaceX shareholders should seek a discount over a longer one. These were model-based estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

The discussion also noted that Musk owns a larger stake in SpaceX. One host suggested that this could give him an incentive to seek a higher SpaceX valuation and lower Tesla valuation at the time of a possible deal. The host expected a merger to bring more attention to Tesla and cited anecdotal signs of multi-month waits for some cars. Another participant raised a risk: Musk has previously made large future-revenue claims, and achieving the plans would involve more leverage than at any of his companies except xAI.