Joe Weisenthal: Texas may matter more than it seems in the midterms

Discussing the midterm elections, Joe Weisenthal said he expected Democrats to have a strong national night but singled out the Texas races as especially worth watching. In his view, Governor Greg Abbott is one of the few politicians associated with support for data centers and development, although Weisenthal said Abbott had been softening that stance for months. Texas’s technology and manufacturing sectors see the state as the future, but politicians may avoid taking clear positions on development and the environment ahead of an election.

Weisenthal said the Texas Senate race had begun to look competitive. He called Democrat James Talarico the favorite and described the Republican nominee as a weak candidate. He said a recent poll had Talarico’s opponent, Hinojosa, ahead by one point; betting markets put Talarico’s chances at about 60%. Weisenthal added that he personally rounds that estimate down to 50%—his own interpretation, not the market’s price.

Weisenthal did not consider New York’s races central. He allowed that the state’s Democrats could underperform other Democrats amid a possible anti-incumbent effect, but said he would be surprised if national attention focused on New York. He mentioned a report of possible power outages in Arizona’s Maricopa County as unverified, noting that he had not had time to check it. He also pointed to a major storm as a possible factor that could affect turnout.

As an unusual election outcome, Weisenthal imagined Abdullah El-Sayed being the only winning Democrat among several competitive races. He predicted that such a result would provoke an especially intense reaction online.