AI hype has yet to produce an obvious macroeconomic productivity break

AI leaders and venture capitalists have invoked terms including “post-AGI era,” “singularity” and the “foothills of the singularity.” But current economic charts do not show an obvious kink attributable to AI, including in GDP or other measures.

The analysis cautions that the absence of an immediate signal does not prove AI is unimportant. Productivity growth associated with the internet was described as modest, while the aggregate effect of mobile phones is also difficult to identify. It remains uncertain when or where AI’s impact will appear in the data.