Anthropic’s potential IPO valuation is discussed at $1.2–2 trillion

The hosts discussed uncertainty around a possible Anthropic IPO. According to one host’s account, an initial $2 trillion valuation was later walked back to $1.5 trillion, with subsequent discussion ranging from $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. The Polymarket probability of an IPO by November 24, he said, had fallen from 70–75% to 49%. The host described market conditions as unsettled, citing a weak third quarter as well as an $80 billion ARR figure mentioned on air and positive reports about Anthropic’s progress on RSI. One participant rejected calling Claude’s valuation view “bearish”: in his account, Claude was being humble in putting the fair market capitalization of a publicly traded Anthropic at $500–800 billion. Another participant argued that a sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks should not, by itself, reduce conviction in Anthropic and might let investors enter at a lower valuation. That was an opinion, not a confirmed company valuation or recommendation. The hosts also noted that venture investors could distribute shares at a lower valuation than the previously discussed $2 trillion.