10-year yield hits 5.18% as debate continues over AI’s role

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, after earlier levels in the 4% range. One view is that the Iran war and resulting energy-price and inflation pressures explain most of the recent jump; AI investment may be a broader influence on rates, but was not seen as the main driver of the latest 30-day move.

An estimate cited in the debate put hyperscaler and Nvidia debt issuance through 2026 at about 70% of total Treasury bond issuance, compared with roughly 30% in 2025. Supporters point to data centers’ potentially short payback periods, while critics caution that private, illiquid AI investments carry more risk than Treasuries. Higher rates were also linked to potential pressure on venture capital and mortgage affordability.